What is the future of China's equipment manufacturing industry in 2019 under downward economic press
Looking back on 2018, the economic operation of China's equipment industry is generally stable. Looking forward to 2019, China's equipment industry as a whole continues to grow steadily, machinery industry as a whole is steadily improving, intelligent manufacturing is gradually deepening, and high-end equipment continues to innovate and develop. Overall, although the international economic situation is complex, the external environment is increasingly severe, and the task of structural reform on the supply side is arduous, overall, the development opportunities of China's equipment industry are still greater than the challenges. Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and equipment industry will accelerate the integration. Industrial robots, material-adding manufacturing, Intelligent Networking New economic growth points, such as automobiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, have been growing steadily in the process of cultivation.
1. Basic Judgment of the Situation in 2019
(1) Continue the steady growth trend as a whole
In 2018, the growth trend of major global economies was clearly divided, trade protectionism was rising, trade frictions continued to escalate, which seriously affected confidence in global economic growth. The recovery of the world economy slowed down. For the first time in more than two years, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its global economic growth expectations. In the face of the complex international economic situation, especially the severe challenges brought by Sino US economic and trade frictions, China's equipment industry has maintained steady growth under the continuous promotion of the strategy of manufacturing power and "one belt and one road".
From January to September, the industrial added value of equipment manufacturing enterprises above the national scale increased by 8.6% year-on-year, which was 2.2 percentage points higher than that of the national industrial added value. It is expected that the growth rate of equipment industry will continue to grow steadily throughout the year, and the annual growth rate of value added will remain at about 7% year-on-year. In terms of import and export, the import and export of equipment industry have maintained a relatively rapid growth, and the overall foreign trade surplus has been maintained. From January to July 2018, the export of machinery and equipment increased by 16.5% year on year, while the import increased by 26.9% year on year. The trade surplus reached 127.14 billion US dollars. It is expected that the situation of import and export of equipment industry will remain optimistic throughout the year.
It is expected that in 2019, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation will continue to evolve in gestation, the transformation of new and old kinetic energy will accelerate, and international trade friction will continue, but it is expected to be eased in contact and dialogue and consultation. China will further deepen its reform. Driven by the in-depth implementation of such strategies as manufacturing power, the continuous upgrading of domestic market demand and the acceleration of construction of key projects, China's equipment industry will continue to promote structural reform on the supply side and maintain stability around such themes as structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, kinetic energy conversion, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. Rapid growth, the annual growth rate is expected to remain around 7%. In terms of import and export, China will further expand its opening up. Under the direct impetus of the first China International Import fair and the second summit of the "one belt and one way" International Cooperation summit, international cooperation in production and equipment manufacturing is expected to continue to push forward, and the import and export of equipment products will continue to grow at a high speed.
(2) The overall stability and improvement of machinery industry
In 2018, with the continuous promotion of structural reform on the supply side and the expansion of effective supply in machinery industry, the transformation and upgrading of the industry and the improvement of quality and efficiency have achieved initial results. The steady and positive trend of the economic operation of machinery industry has been further consolidated. The growth rate of main economic indicators exceeds the national industrial average, and the steady growth of production and marketing and orders are better than expected. Investment has improved and the endogenous momentum for development has increased. From January to August 2018, the main business income of machinery industry was 14.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.28% over the same period, and the growth rate of added value was 7.6%, a decrease of 1.76 percentage points over the same period, which was 0.56 percentage points behind the national industrial growth rate over the same period. From January to August, the loss area of machinery industry loss-making enterprises reached 18.34%, up 1.28 percentage points from the same period last year. Intelligent manufacturing-related products are growing rapidly, such as industrial automatic control instruments and control systems, analytical instruments and devices, test machines, industrial robots, the output growth rate is 17%-42% year on year. Construction machinery products maintain a high-speed growth trend, such as excavator growth rate of 60%, loader, bulldozer, grader and truck crane output is also more than 30%. The products whose output declined year-on-year are mainly agricultural machinery equipment, power generation equipment, transmission and transformation equipment, which have increased rapidly in the past few years.
It is expected that in 2019, there will still be many uncertainties affecting the machinery industry, the traditional industries of the main services of the machinery industry will still be in the stage of capacity adjustment, the market demand is still low, and the trend of fixed assets investment recovery is not strong. At the same time, the unbalanced situation of insufficient supply of high-end products and excess supply of low-end products will continue. The problem of insufficient development of short board in machinery industry will remain prominent, and the task of improving the quality of industry development will remain arduous. New industrial products such as industrial robots, industrial automatic regulating instruments and control systems, analytical instruments and devices, civil unmanned aerial vehicles, ice and snow equipment will maintain rapid growth, and the cyclical recovery of construction machinery will continue. With the further deepening of the structural reform of supply side, the economic operation of the industry will be expected. Maintaining steady growth, the growth trend of major economic indicators, such as industrial added value, main business income and profit, is roughly the same as in 2018.
(3) Intelligent Manufacturing Progressive Deepening
After several years of continuous pilot exploration, the top-level design of intelligent manufacturing has basically formed. Up to now, new formats and modes represented by mass customization, network collaborative development, online monitoring, remote diagnosis and cloud services have developed rapidly. Seven international standards such as WIA-FA standard for wireless communication technology and 74 national standards such as "requirements for identification of intelligent manufacturing objects" have been issued one after another, and a preliminary establishment has been made. A series of important breakthroughs have been made in key technology equipment and core industrial software of intelligent manufacturing, such as high-grade CNC machine tools, industrial robots, add-on manufacturing equipment, business management systems, industrial control systems, etc. Large enterprises such as Aliyun, Sany Heavy Industries and Haier have laid out and built industrial Internet platforms. Intelligent transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises has accelerated. A number of equipment enterprises, industrial automation suppliers, software developers and user enterprises have accelerated the transformation to intelligent manufacturing system solution suppliers.
It is expected that in 2019, the development of Intelligent Manufacturing in China will accelerate the transformation from "point demonstration" to "surface promotion" in application demonstration, cross-industry promotion and upstream and downstream enterprise expansion. With the acceleration of capital, talent and technology gathering in the field of intelligent manufacturing, on the one hand, the enterprise's awareness, understanding and attention to intelligent manufacturing are constantly increasing. Industrial Internet platform has become an important focus for large enterprises to develop intelligent manufacturing. Automation, digitalization and network transformation of key links will become small and medium-sized enterprises. Enterprises focus on developing intelligent manufacturing. On the other hand, the supply capacity of intelligent manufacturing will continue to improve steadily, and the cost-effective intelligent manufacturing solutions will be taken seriously. The development and establishment of intelligent manufacturing standards will be further accelerated, more than 100 test and verification platforms for intelligent manufacturing standards will be built, and more than 200 national standards for intelligent manufacturing will be revised.
(4) Continuous innovation and development of high-end equipment
In 2018, driven by a series of national industrial policies, the development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry has achieved remarkable results, and a number of new significant achievements have been achieved. For example, the domestic large amphibious aircraft "Kun long" AG600 successfully completed the first flight of water, the world's first high-speed rail automatic driving system completed the field test, the domestic independent medical large-scale radiotherapy device began clinical trial treatment, the world's first sending end + 1100kV UHVDC converter transformer was successfully developed, the wide body aircraft landing gear. The main lifting cylinder forgings have been successfully manufactured.
It is expected that in 2019, in addition to the long-term favorable policies, the continuous upgrading of domestic market demand will force China's manufacturing industry to accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading, and the solid promotion of "major equipment short board project" will accelerate the localization of substitution, a number of major equipment will be applied in engineering and industrialization, the level of independent design and system integration capabilities, and verification. The technological level of heart component development has been gradually improved, and the industrial innovation and competitiveness have been continuously enhanced. With the increasing practice of "going out" for high-end equipment such as high-speed rail, nuclear power and satellite applications, the recognition and brand recognition of China's equipment abroad will be strengthened day by day.
2. Several Issues Needing Attention
(1) The downward pressure of equipment industry is high.
First, the market demand for equipment is low. Although the traditional user industries such as power, metallurgy, coal, petrochemical and other industries have released part of the equipment demand for renewal and transformation, compared with the capacity of the equipment industry, the market demand is still obviously insufficient. Faced with the current complex economic situation, some users are cautious about investment and production expansion. There are not many new industrial projects, regional industrial investment has declined, and the growth rate of investment in industrial technological transformation has slowed down, which has led to a decline in the demand for equipment products. Second, the difficulty of financing has intensified. Influenced by the neutral and tight monetary policy, increasing financial deleveraging and bank's contraction of off-balance sheet business, the stock market and bond market are "double killing", the overall liquidity of the market is insufficient, and the financing difficulties of equipment manufacturing industry are aggravated. From January to August 2018, the equipment industry interest expenditure increased by 16.8% year on year, and the financing cost increased significantly. Under the influence of multiple pressures, from January to July 2018, the total profit of the whole industry grew at a low rate of 4.5% year-on-year, which was lower than the 12.6 percentage point increase of the total industrial profit of the whole country.
(2) Increasing difficulty in business operation
Firstly, due to the overflow of domestic acceptance bills and the spread of triangular debt, some enterprises have difficulties in liquidity turnover. Accounts receivable of enterprises continue to increase, capital shortage intensifies, and some enterprises suffer serious losses. From January to August 2018, the total receivables of equipment industry reached 4.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1% over the previous year, accounting for more than one third of the total industrial receivables in China. Second, expenditure on raw materials, energy and labor costs has increased rapidly. From January to August 2018, the main business cost of equipment industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, which was higher than 0.4% and 5.2% of the total revenue and profit of the main business in the same period.
(3) The quality of industrial development needs to be improved
First, emerging industries are small in scale. Industrial robots, add-on manufacturing and other emerging equipment industry enterprises are small and scattered, and the problem of convergent duplicate construction has not been effectively curbed. Due to the lack of key technologies, the low-end of high-end industry is still worrying, and the overall competitiveness of the industry is still weak, which has little support for the equipment industry. Second, the proportion of traditional industries is still large. At present, the equipment industry is still mainly concentrated in the traditional product areas. Most of the products are low in digitalization and intellectualization level, low added value, fierce market competition, and high-end CNC machine tools, high-end special production equipment and so on are still largely dependent on imports. Thirdly, the lack of basic supporting and core supply capacity, the lack of core technology, the dependence on imports of key components such as reducers for robots, etc. urgently need to be improved. The core industrial software such as the underlying operating system, CAX (computer-aided software), MES (manufacturing execution system) and so on are still subject to human beings.
(4) Adverse effects of trade frictions
Sino-US trade frictions have adversely affected China's equipment industry. First, from the perspective of coverage, the U.S. government issued a list of tariffs imposed on China's imports of $200 billion, accounting for 60.97% of the equipment industry's exports to the United States, with a more significant impact. Second, from the point of view of the intensity of tariff increase, the added value of most equipment products exported from China to the United States is relatively low. If the tariff is increased by 25%, the profits of enterprises will be basically swallowed up, which will not only affect the efficiency of enterprises, but also the American market which has been operated for many years will be lost, and the long-term impact will be greater. For Jinan No. 2 Machine Tool and Shenyang Substation Company, which depend heavily on the U.S. market, high tariffs will deprive their products of competitive advantage, reduce their exports to the U.S. substantially, and the projects being implemented will also face huge losses, even affect the normal operation of enterprises. Thirdly, from the point of view of importing from the United States, China needs to import all kinds of instruments and instruments. The technology of high-end products such as main control system and transmission system of automobile industry mainly depends on Europe and Japan. The influence from the United States is limited and controllable in general. However, it is necessary to prevent the United States, Europe and Japan from taking restrictive measures against China and starting high-end core in the United States. Export control of key technologies, products and components, such as chips, should be implemented in advance.
3. Countermeasures and Suggestions to Be Adopted
(1) Accelerating the Improvement of Innovation Ability
First, we should make full use of the special funds for industrial transformation and upgrading as well as the investment funds for advanced manufacturing industries and the national guiding funds for venture capital in emerging industries to implement the major national science and technology projects such as high-end numerical control machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment, large aircraft, aeroengines and gas turbines, as well as "major equipment". "Short board project" and so on, speed up breakthroughs in a number of key core technologies, and develop a number of key products and major equipment with strong symbolic and driving force. Second, we should give full play to the leading role of national innovation centers such as power batteries, material-adding manufacturing and industrial robots, strengthen the docking of production, teaching and research, strengthen the common key technology research, break through the bottleneck of industrial technology, speed up the pace of industrialization of technological achievements, constantly sum up the successful experience of the construction of innovation centers, and face the intelligent network combined steam. In the key areas of automobile, agricultural machinery and medical equipment, we plan to build a number of new national innovation centers.
(2) Deeply Promoting Intelligent Transition
Firstly, we should grasp the "foresight", aim at the forefront of innovation and development of big data and artificial intelligence, improve the supply capacity of key technology equipment, industrial software, intelligent manufacturing complete sets of equipment and the level of localization, explore a new mode of intelligent manufacturing, and grasp the initiative to develop intelligent manufacturing. Secondly, we should carry out the work of summarizing, evaluating and acceptance of intelligent manufacturing projects in a phased way, and give full play to the demonstration and driving role of selecting projects. All regions and sub-areas of equipment manufacturing industry need to be implemented step by step, with key breakthroughs and step-by-step advancement in accordance with their respective development realities. Third, based on "practicability", closely docking market demand, aiming at maximizing economic benefits, we should formulate development strategies suitable for ourselves at different stages of development. Fourth, consolidate the "foundation", strengthen the industrial Internet, information security infrastructure construction, build a number of intelligent manufacturing standards testing platform, and further improve the intelligent manufacturing standards system.
(3) Deepening international exchanges and cooperation
First, we should enrich and improve bilateral and multilateral dialogue mechanisms and continue to cooperate with the world's equipment powers represented by Germany and Japan in technology innovation, standard interconnection and talent exchange and training in the fields of intelligent manufacturing and intelligent network automobile. The two is to support domestic enterprises to strengthen international exchanges and cooperation and overseas layout, optimize the allocation of innovative resources in the global scope, promote the "one belt and one way" international cooperation, encourage the launching of major projects international cooperation and project contracting, and promote rail transit equipment, power equipment, petrochemical equipment, automobiles, construction machinery, etc. Agricultural machinery, aviation equipment, ship and marine engineering equipment and other advantages of enterprises to achieve equipment, technology, standards and services "go out".
(4) Strengthen industry monitoring and judgment
First, we should improve the monitoring and analysis system for the economic operation of equipment manufacturing industry, regularly publish authoritative industrial data, improve the ability to judge the future economic trend of equipment manufacturing industry, and provide accurate data support for scientific decision-making. Second, we should follow up and analyze the new situation at home and abroad, actively carry out investigation and research, closely track the operation and export of key areas, key industries and key enterprises, and timely grasp the fluctuations and fluctuations of domestic and foreign markets.
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